Tuesday, April 3, 2012

The Employment Coaster ... Buckle Up Vegas

Just thought I would share this graph with you. It shows total employment in all industries (blue bars) in the Las Vegas MSA from 2010 to Feb 2012. According the NDETR, the Las Vegas MSA has lost about 21,000 jobs since Nov 2011. Under most circumstances, this would be worrisome, especially when combined with the weakness experienced in commercial real estate since the third quarter of 2011, but given the weird, bumpy trend we’ve seen over the last couple of years, I’m not so sure. A simple linear trend line (in black) shows that employment is gradually rising, and the series of peaks and troughs might just be an artifact of the process used by NDETR to gather the job numbers. The red line represents net absorption of industrial, office and retail combined. This graph suggests that the trend will be higher net absorption and employment by mid-year. Let’s hope there’s some truth to that.

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